A Fixian Mindset

The Kali Forecast

We currently have a few threads going on in FIX in relation to Kali. Honestly, I can't imagine a self respecting alliance that isn't looking on with great interest to the changes that are coming our way. There are a lot of changes coming our way, and as such there have an abundance of topics we can pick apart.

An area I haven't seen yet, is the long range forecast of Kali on alliances. It's unfathomable to think that CCP hasn't put some thought in this direction themselves, for several reasons. CCP is opening up 8 new regions for our exploration, pleasure, and conflicts; but this is just the icing on the cake of what they truely have in store for alliances.

Having been around Eve for a while, I've had the time to realise that when CCP institutes changes, there can be a considerable pause before the changes they have envisioned take effect. This is due to us, the players; it simply takes a given amount of time for us to first recognize the changes for what they truely are, and secondly for the amount of time it takes us to evolve as a universe into their projected vision.

Case in point; when Eve kicked off, the market was an aspect of Eve that required evolution in order to come to fruition. Early on, players were able to sell minerals to NPC's for set rates. There were limits in each system and station for what NPC's would absorb in the span of a day. Prices for these minerals didn't fluctuate either; going from tritanium to megacyte, they were 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096. New players might be saying 'Huh? Zydrine was only worth 1024 isk per?'

It took time for the market to evolve... when the server first started up, nobody owned a single BPO, there was nobody manufacturing anything. You can be sure that a great many of us were in a rush to start however. That left us with three immediate sources of income, mining ,ratting, and agents. The very beginning of Eve was a time period that I doubt any of the people there for it will soon forget. Of course, people sold minerals to NPC's, collected bounties from rats, and earned their agent rewards. Many of these people reinvested their hard earned isk into buying BPO's, and then production began in earnest, undercutting the NPC market, and creating a fledgling dynamic economy, which has continued to grow into the complex animal we have today.

So why is this important to us now, and Kali? Because CCP are doing it again it appears, but most people aren't going to realise it for several months, and perhaps not see the trickle down effects in many areas for over a year. 0.0 is about to get a lot bigger, and I'm not talking about the eight new regions either. Welcome to Eve Economics 102.

If the theory held that alliances only claim what they need (in some cases that theory holds, in others it doesn't), then alliance claims to space would be objectively based upon the earning potential of an area for it's members. Now, let's jump past the question of territorial control in regards to routes, because while it does effect arguments regarding claimed space requirements, its is for secondary purposes to an alliances need to be self-sufficient.

The needs of an alliance are based upon the membership and their activities. Basically, the more guys you have in your space trying to earn some cash, the more area you need for them to make that cash without treading all over each others toes. In comes Kali, and some rather fundamental changes. What we're being told at this point, is that each system post Kali, will have a minimum of 10 available 'encounters'. Now this can range from shifting plex's, mission-like settings, to hidden belts, and whatever else CCP has cooked up for us. You can take all that, and squeeze it down to it's base component though... money making capacity per system is being increased dramatically.

More people will be able to 'work' a single system than we've previously experienced. Let's take a couple of constellations, and a fair sized alliance as an example, and go from there. For this example, we'll say we have 12 systems within these two constellations, and we have a peak of 120 online characters at any given time within the alliance. Now, we already know that each system will have a minimum of 10 encounters per system, so we know from that, that these two constellations have a minimum of 120 possible encounters available at any given time. Obviously, some of these are going to have greater potential for earning cash than others, let's say half are crap, that leaves us with 60 decent money makers. Now, out of the guys you have online in the alliance, how many are doing their own thing, how many are out pvp'ing, doing corp business etc, and how many are looking to make some quick cash?

Odds are very much in your favor, that you have an abundance of extra encounters available for the people that are making use of them. So what is the direct impact of all this on an alliance? For one, it means that people aren't forced to queue up to run a complex, or moving from system to system in the hopes of finding a spot they can go ratting in, or finding a spot to mine peacefully (a rare breed, but I heard they do infact exist). Here is the immediate result from this; we'll find a greater concentration of players in the same systems, because they can work there without stepping on each other. Space, just got larger.

Quite suddenly, if the money earning potential holds out that is, an alliance of 1000 people, only needs a couple of constellations to be very comfortable in, whereas before it required at least 1 region for that many players to maximize their potential. Most of us remember the Exodus expansion, CCP was trying to move people out to 0.0.... didn't quite work. Half the reason why it didn't work, is because if some poor empire dwelling soul stuck his head in there, the alliance inhabiting that area would very likely remove his head for his troubles. My space, we earned it, get the fuck out. Limited resources creates a backdrop for conflict, the strong rule, the weak get podded back to empire.

Eve however, is beginning to get just a tad more populated these days, and doesn't really show signs of slowing down if CCP can keep overcoming the various server issues that come with having more players. At this point, a few questions are likely popping up about the logic and reasoning I'm using. I don't expect that alliances will suddenly say to themselves 'Oh hey guys! Check it out, we don't need 4 regions anymore, let's dump 3 of them!'. Which brings us back to the example of the evolving economy that CCP created.

Kali isn't like throwing a switch, and the mass exodus to 0.0 occurs, it's going to be an evolution over time. Alliances are forged, they live, they prosper, then they die. It's a cycle that only a few manage to avoid. I know I've been picking on ASCN lately, but by far they best serve this example I'm about to provide. Let's say it is a foregone conclusion that ASCN will die. Those people who were members of ASCN will splinter into smaller groups, based on politics, friendships, past actions etc. Some will leave the area forever, going to different pastures. Those that remain however, will forge new alliances; smaller alliances, with smaller territories.

What they'll find is, that their small holdings are enough to sustain their alliance members needs, and then some. Well, small alliances may not want to remain small, so they recruit new corporations and they grow their existing corporations. Not so suddenly, you have a much greater population density than you did before. Aha you say! What is to stop the natural predatory imperialist expansion that we know to be coming? In two words, constellation sovereignty; it requires three outposts in a single constellation, and then from there by the time Kali 2 rolls around, we'll be seeing outpost upgrades, system defenses, and all sorts of neat things that will increase an alliances hold on it's claim... and cost a heck of a lot of isk besides.

Wars will still happen, this sure as hell isn't the dawn of the carebear age. People will still piss off others, tread on toes, and be percieved by their neighbours to be an easy target. The greater the level of conflict in an area, the faster the evolution will occur, up until the poor mapmaker has a fit trying to keep up with all the alliances and changes that pour in every week. I half wonder if I have actually figured out what CCP has planned for us... or if I'm completely off base... or if I'm seeing things that CCP didn't even realise they were building into our futures.

Kali will be interesting, and will remain so well into future patchs due to the changes that are being wrought.

posted by Avernus @ 8:37 PM